Oil nears $94, Trump election setback fuels Iran peace hopes

Brent crude futures fell 0.73% to $93.93 per barrel on Thursday, extending their decline to a fourth session, Mettis Global reported. Investors were weighing whether the Republican Party’s losses in US congressional elections could limit President Donald Trump’s scope for military action against Iran and improve prospects for diplomacy.

The report said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered close to pre-war levels, although transport costs remained high. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market surplus at 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October, while analysts cautioned that the path of US-Iran relations remained uncertain. Eurasia Group cut its estimate for renewed US strikes to 60% from 65%, lowered the chance of a diplomatic deal to 10% from 20%, and raised the likelihood of a prolonged standoff to 30% from 15%.